Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 20.192101 21.997584 23.998264 26.401517 29.240105 32.525694 36.676852
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 17.535753 19.910036 22.741850 26.447288 31.297254 37.636958 46.953264
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.616037 18.251116 21.564913 26.193556 32.782755 42.381903 58.784893
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.315308 17.114469 20.786970 26.204906 34.514647 47.946206 74.943738
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.229921 16.090622 19.968376 25.944652 35.703079 53.026681 94.092439
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.372396 15.261029 19.284413 25.721902 36.839314 58.425320 119.591710
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.669877 14.566215 18.694778 25.520720 37.925103 64.191841 154.901702
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.095536 13.995004 18.214186 25.401790 39.107818 70.775062 208.728521
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.510933 13.359321 17.567643 24.899613 39.411983 75.423918 271.795015
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.322222 13.284408 17.772052 25.892849 43.050530 91.752015 556.441009
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.901284 12.829447 17.327004 25.640543 43.884641 100.234189 1007.771483
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.572664 12.491899 17.041114 25.643356 45.325215 112.451356 3309.664941
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.289773 12.213322 16.839543 25.803871 47.286411 129.808371 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.022008 11.942280 16.628910 25.920654 49.208276 150.635576 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.723011 11.604895 16.278798 25.707313 50.176624 168.700746 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.485265 11.351891 16.055842 25.732564 51.883231 196.777745 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.225637 11.050156 15.725568 25.486382 52.701730 221.630058 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.989838 10.775738 15.425798 25.272941 53.589930 252.199444 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.773245 10.522734 15.148467 25.078829 54.512606 289.924782 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.581749 10.302476 14.916967 24.963874 55.709536 342.469459 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.353787 10.012664 14.541544 24.476331 55.409350 371.416433 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.322111 10.047757 14.769076 25.441012 61.123598 636.229627 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.145511 9.831318 14.510254 25.196104 61.844702 789.014518 NaN